A price of four and an assessment of twenty percent

A worked example using a hypothetical scenario to show how the reasoning applies.

The scenario

A decimal price of 4.00 corresponds to an implied 25%. A separately entered assessment of 20% corresponds to fair decimal odds of 5.00 under the simple reciprocal convention. The calculation does not establish whether the assessment is accurate, available to transact or suitable for a decision.

What to take from it

The most uncertain part is often the probability estimate, not the arithmetic.

What to check next

• Confirm that the input is decimal odds greater than one.
• Distinguish an implied percentage from an assessed probability.
• Avoid comparing unsynchronised quotes as if they were one market.

Keep the conclusion specific

Separate the observation, the interpretation and the unresolved question. A worksheet is most useful when its conclusion stays within the evidence entered into it.

The tool is educational and supplies no live price or betting recommendation.